Revitalizing Arms Control Agreements with Russia: A Path to Global Security

Big Picture
The United States and Russia, as the world’s foremost nuclear powers, have a unique responsibility to prevent nuclear conflict and ensure global stability. Yet, in recent years, the erosion of arms control agreements has increased the risk of nuclear escalation, both bilaterally and globally. The collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 and the uncertain future of the New START treaty highlight the urgent need for renewed diplomacy.

At the Center for Realpolitik and American Values (CRAV), we believe that revitalizing and expanding arms control agreements with Russia is essential to reducing the risk of nuclear war, ensuring transparency, and rebuilding trust. Such measures are not only pragmatic but vital to maintaining U.S. security and global stability in an increasingly multipolar world.

The Importance of Arms Control

Arms control agreements serve as a stabilizing force in U.S.-Russia relations by establishing clear rules, fostering transparency, and preventing costly arms races. The New START treaty, set to expire in 2026, limits each side to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and provides mechanisms for verification, including inspections and data exchanges. Without it, the nuclear arms race may reignite, leading to an unpredictable and dangerous global security environment.

Moreover, arms control agreements allow the U.S. to maintain its strategic edge while reducing unnecessary expenditures. By capping the number of deployed weapons and delivery systems, these treaties prevent an unrestrained buildup of arsenals, freeing up resources for other critical national priorities.

The Current Challenges

1. Breakdown of Existing Frameworks
   The U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019 and Russia’s suspension of New START inspections in 2023 reflect a deteriorating trust between the two nations. These developments leave the nuclear relationship unregulated at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions.
2. Emerging Nuclear Powers
   The rise of other nuclear states, such as China, complicates the bilateral arms control paradigm. While U.S.-Russia agreements have historically underpinned global nuclear stability, their scope must evolve to address new realities.
3. Technological Advancements
   The development of hypersonic weapons, cyber capabilities targeting nuclear command systems, and space-based assets further destabilizes the strategic environment. Current treaties do not adequately address these emerging threats, necessitating updates to the framework.

Policy Recommendations

To address these challenges, we propose a three-pronged approach to revitalize arms control agreements with Russia:

1. Renew and Expand the New START Treaty

• The U.S. and Russia should negotiate an extension of New START beyond its 2026 expiration.
• The treaty’s scope should be expanded to include emerging technologies, such as hypersonic weapons and nuclear-capable drones, ensuring that modern developments do not destabilize the strategic balance.
• Verification mechanisms, including on-site inspections and real-time data sharing, should be enhanced to build confidence and deter violations.

2. Negotiate a Multilateral Framework

• While U.S.-Russia agreements remain critical, the inclusion of other nuclear states, particularly China, is essential for long-term stability.
• The U.S. should spearhead efforts to create a multilateral arms control framework that establishes transparency and caps nuclear arsenals across all major powers.
• Confidence-building measures, such as no-first-use pledges and regional de-escalation zones, can serve as starting points for broader negotiations.

3. Address Non-Nuclear Strategic Threats

• Incorporate regulations for cyber capabilities that could disrupt nuclear command-and-control systems, ensuring that these vulnerabilities do not escalate into full-scale conflict.
• Develop agreements governing space-based weapons and anti-satellite capabilities, which pose a significant risk to strategic stability.
• Create forums for regular dialogue on technological advancements, fostering mutual understanding and reducing the risk of miscalculation.

Why This Initiative Matters

Revitalizing arms control agreements with Russia is not about appeasement; it is about securing U.S. interests and maintaining global stability. Without these agreements, the risk of accidental or intentional nuclear escalation increases dramatically. As President Ronald Reagan famously said, “A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” This principle remains as relevant today as it was during the Cold War.

Moreover, arms control aligns with fiscal responsibility. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that modernizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal will cost $634 billion over the next decade (CBO, 2023). By capping weapons development, arms control treaties can help reduce this financial burden while maintaining a credible deterrent.

The Path Forward

The United States must act decisively to restore its leadership in arms control. This requires prioritizing dialogue with Russia, even amidst broader geopolitical tensions. Pragmatic engagement on arms control does not negate competition in other areas; rather, it ensures that this competition does not spiral into catastrophe.

By renewing and expanding agreements like New START, addressing emerging technologies, and promoting multilateral cooperation, the U.S. can secure a safer future while upholding its strategic interests. At CRAV, we believe this is the path of Realpolitik: a practical, interest-based approach that prioritizes global stability and American security.

Sources

• Congressional Budget Office. “Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2023-2032.” CBO.gov, 2023. Link.
• National Security Archive. “The INF Treaty and the Breakdown of U.S.-Russia Arms Control.” GWU.edu, 2020. Link.
• Brookings Institution. “The Future of New START and Strategic Arms Control.” Brookings.edu, 2023. Link.